tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65806408968198881152024-02-19T05:19:48.158+01:00Non SignificanceAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-8348467012397376062017-03-12T09:45:00.001+01:002017-03-12T09:45:38.275+01:00Opportunism in research<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">When I was in
seventh grade I joint the youth-group of a political party. Approximately two
years later we had the opportunity to meet with the leader of that party to “discuss”(1)
the further directions said party could or should take.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The leader
of that party had been of the view that the party should takes some positions
of the green party, not of reasons related to the content of the positions, but
because the green party had dropped these positions.</span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">While I
could understand that getting votes is important for a political party, I found
that too opportunistic and left: I felt that you should argue for things bases
on the arguments (and counterarguments) you have not based on popularity.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I changed a
lot of my views, but I still believe that. However, maybe I understand better
that it’s not always easy not to be opportunistic, because opportunisms seems
to be what brings people forward. The questions is whether it brings you where
you originally wanted to go.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I hope that
research is primarily about learning new things about the world, but it’s also
politics: Should you point your results just a little brighter than they really
are? How much, if any, opposing literature should you cite? Change that effect
size estimate a little to increase the chances of funding? Present only your
positive sides in a CV?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Some people
may say that none of these things are ok, ever, under any circumstances. I tend
to agree, but then, how long do you search for counter evidence? For how long
do you check if things aren’t worse than you think? Living, breathing,
consuming is inherently opportunistic, isn’t it? Working is. If you can’t work
in research, you’ve to work elsewhere, and I don’t know if selling burgers at
McDonalds would be any less opportunistic?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So the
question may be where to draw the line. That however is a difficult questions,
especially when a lot of current problems in research may stem from people
taking every chance (to get money, to publish, to stay in research) with no
regard to the long term consequences… (2)</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(1) Of course I
know that such “discussions” are just for publicity/popularity as well.</span></span></div>
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</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(2) I don’t
know if I could say what I want to say. Basically my question is: What is ok
and what isn’t and how should we decide? It would be easy to say, all but
perfect honesty is wrong, but a) perfect honesty is difficult to achieve,
because you can never tell everything that *might possibly* be relevant and b)
I think it would put most people out of research pretty quickly. Some people
may say, the perfectionism shouldn’t be to goal, but then the question is where
to draw the line? What is ok and what isn’t?</span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-9010943571193327402017-03-10T21:24:00.003+01:002017-03-10T21:24:47.053+01:00A (very) critical "review" of CBT: individual psychotherapy<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now, to say
at least something nice about the CBT-program which I did: The psychotherapists
were nice, kind and, I think, understanding. However, in the time I was there I
had four different therapists and that’s not because I didn’t get along with
one or the other, but because they have contracts which suck as well: Their
contract ran out, so they switched to a different position. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Therefore I obviously
couldn’t really discuss anything with them in depth, due to the time
constraints. However, that wasn’t too bad, because I wouldn’t have known what
to discuss anyways. I told them about the struggle with my PhD, but I feel like
twitter is the better place to discuss that, because the details are of course
difficult to understand for people who don’t work in research.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So, it was
nice that they were sympathetic and at least pretended to understand how I was
feeling, but I’m not sure that did anything to help me with depression, though
I do think it possibly made staying at the hospital (which is not the nicest
place to be) a bit easier. But then, on the other hand, they try to figure out
why you are depressed, i.e. which live events made you depressed. Maybe I’m
just not good at arriving at hypotheses (regarding that) in which I feel some
sense of certainty (though of course you fundamentally can’t know), but I don’t
know why this happened to me. My working environment might be a candidate (for
a cause) but I really don’t know, I liked my work and I liked what I was doing
(mostly), I feel it would be unfair to blame that entirely. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But then,
psychologist come up with their own hypothesis, like maybe your parents avoided
and ignored you as a child. Of course they state it as a hypothesis, not a fact.
They barely know you, let only your parents, so how could they? But still, a
hypothesis that is spoken out is something you think about, is it true, is it
not true, how can I know whether it’s true or not, I only have my memories and
not the ones of other children and no one did an experiment on my family (well,
I hope ;)) to figure out if I was treated worse than other children. So how
could I possibly know? And, I dunno, but I think this can be the side-effect of
psychotherapy: That you search for a cause, because there has to be one (hasn’t
there?) and start to reinterpret (normal or maybe not so normal) events in the
light of that hypothesis. (Depression certainly can help with that…). And I
just don’t know if much is gained with that; if I’d think of my parents as bad
parents (I don’t!) how would that help
me (other than avoiding the awkward moments when I’ve to explain that I don’t
know how it happened)?</span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-20535358732424365172017-03-08T15:43:00.001+01:002017-03-08T15:43:15.561+01:00A (very) critical "review" of CBT: music therapy<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Even though
the psychotherapy program I did for depression was called "cognitive behavioral"
it had some elements which I’d classify as psychodynamic, namely the "art-therapy"
and the "music-therapy". Luckily I got rid of both of them pretty fast.</span></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In the art
therapy we had to do stuff like drawing our feelings. Surely you can make up a
visual metaphor for everything, but to me it didn’t make a lot of sense, nor
did I want to provoke the therapist with blank papers. The music-therapy however
was a lot stranger than that, it didn’t have really anything to do with music,
even though that’s what it was called. Well, to be fair, I could have played an
instrument, the therapist had asked if I wanted, but I didn’t want. So she thought
up her own therapy for me, which consisted of figuring out how many parts you
(I) have and naming them. Since I told her, that I am, fortunately or not, only
one person, who – as everyone else – of course has different personality traits
or aspects but no different parts, she did the work for me and defined and
named different parts. I don’t remember all of them, but
one was the self and a supposed other one was a waiting person. She wrote these "parts"
on individual pieces of paper and asked me to lay them down on the floor. So I
did; I placed the stack of papers on the floor. Of course my stupid part didn’t
get *how* she wanted the pieces to be laid down; I had to put them besides each
other, kind of like a mind map. But even when I did that, it wasn’t right. The
therapist didn’t feel that I’d placed them the right distances apart, so she asked
me to step on one piece of paper while she stood on another and asked me if
that was a comfortable distance. It was not, I don’t like standing face to face
with another person, without any distance. But I’m sure this didn’t
have to do anything with the pieces of paper on the floor. So I told her about
my suspicions about cause and effect here. And that’s how I got rid of that
therapy :).</span></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">To be
honest it is quite mysterious to me why the health insurances even pays for a
therapy like that. They don’t if you are not inpatient, but if you are in a
psychiatry they pay for all kind of stuff. However, there were other patients
(though not many!) who said that it helped them. But then, if it’s not evidence
based (and it isn’t by the insurances own criteria; otherwise they had to pay
it on an outpatient basis as well), you don’t know what else might have helped
them….</span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-38383840296790229292017-02-27T17:38:00.001+01:002017-02-27T17:38:48.710+01:00A (very) critical "review" of CBT: mindfulness<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In previous
posts I told you that I did an inpatient CBT program for depression. I
described the activity planning group <a href="http://nonsignificance.blogspot.de/2017/02/a-very-critical-review-of-CBT-activity-planning.html" target="_blank">here</a> and the relaxation classes <a href="http://nonsignificance.blogspot.de/2017/02/a-very-critical-review-of-cbt-PMR.html" target="_blank">here</a>.
Today I’d like to share my experiences with the mindfulness group.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I doubt
that these classes were according to any protocol, so I don’t want to extend my
opinion on it to everything that’s called mindfulness. In the beginning of
(almost) every class we were told the mindfulness or pleasure rules: Pleasure
needs time, needs to be allowed, is individual… and the rest I don’t recall
despite all the repetition. After that we had to focus on one sense, seeing,
hearing, tasting, touching, and smelling. For example we were given an item in
the hand with closed eyes and had to touch it to see how it feels, or we had to
walk through the room and focus on the different colors we could see. I hope
you get the point.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now, I
think it this *may* be *some* distraction, but it doesn’t really help. The
mechanism by which it should help is not clear to me. When I’m feeling well,
this would probably be an interesting task, but when I’m not it’s not. When I’m
fine I like a lot of little things, an accidental splash of color on my water
bottle, packaging foil (the sounds and looks of it), trees (they just look
interesting and come in so many different forms), and lots, lots more. But part
of depression is loss of pleasure and it doesn’t come back with just seeing
things you might otherwise find beautiful or interesting. I can well describe the
sensations (the roughness or softness of a material, the temperature of it, etc.)
but it doesn’t mean anything. Chocolate tastes different than cardboard, but it
is the same feeling. It’s just not nice. It’s effort. In some way I think the
focus on what should be nice but isn’t is quite depressing in itself. It is
like they try to tell you “but look, the world is nice, you’ve just to focus on
that” but it doesn’t feel, look, take, sound nice.</span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-73287839780712674222017-02-26T18:41:00.002+01:002017-02-26T18:41:22.581+01:00Having a story to tell...<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In a TV-documentary I once
saw there was a prosecutor who basically said (smiling): “Yeah, I know that he
fitted the criteria for insanity, everyone knew, it was so obvious. I didn’t
think we’d succeed with our strategy but we had to build this *narrative* that
he was sane.” And she seemed to be totally fine with it, she did her job and
won, so that’s something to celebrate, isn’t it? Well, I don’t know. While she
succeeded in her job, shouldn’t trials be about evidence and justice instead?</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In science, I think this is
even more complicated because there isn’t necessarily a representative for
every side of an argument. While there of course is peer-review (which serves
that purpose), peer-reviewers (most of the time) can’t know what is not
reported, what is not part of the narrative that the authors tell. They don’t
go and dig failed preliminary studies or replications out of the authors’
file-drawers; they don’t search for evidence against the authors claims.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Therefore I think that in
research it is even more important that the full story, not just the prettiest
element of it is told. However, that is not what we are taught. In 2015 I
attended a Summer School for PhD-students. It was very interesting and I
learned a lot, however we also were told that we have to tell a story, report
the aspects that are most convincing and interesting to tell. While I
understand and agree with some parts of that (data can be shown in confusing or
less confusing ways) I think that this advice is mostly understood (and
probably meant) as “out of the many things you could tell about your study/your
data, you’ve to pick the most interesting part and choose the aspects of the
data that support it, while ignoring the rest”. I think that this is wrong.</span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-48580793867604263072017-02-21T14:06:00.000+01:002017-02-21T20:37:21.692+01:00Who's responsible for flawed studies?<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In his blog post about case of data-fabrication in which the (alleged) fabricator was not included as an author, <a href="https://twitter.com/Neuro_Skeptic" target="_blank">Neuroskeptic</a> notes that „<a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/neuroskeptic/2017/02/13/authorship-means-responsibility/" target="_blank">Authorship means responsibility</a>“. I agree!!</span></span><br />
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<br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://retractionwatch.com/2017/02/07/study-words-effect-mood-retracted-investigation-finds-evidence-data-manipulation/" target="_blank">In this case</a>, the grad student who collected and manipulated the data remained (so far) unnamed, because he is, rightly or not, not listed as an author. But while it should be clear that authors have to take responsibility for what is published under their name, I think that responsibility reaches further.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In any complex study naturally a lot of people are involved. Of course it’s not the fault of the person at Siemens who wrote the scanning sequence if we then go and use it incorrectly and – in my opinion – neither is it the fault of a supervisor if their PhD-student “cleverly” manipulates the data.(1) After all it’s not kindergarten; not everything can be checked.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But it should be (though I know that it not always is) by “surprise” if an aspect of a study turns out to be problematic after publication: You shouldn’t be able to know prior to publication that, say, the statistics are somewhat dubious; papers with fishy statistics shouldn’t be published. However, it might turn out later on that <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4440210/" target="_blank">“consistent signals” may just be artifacts produced by the imaging techniques</a> - and the fact that brains need a constant supply of blood. In such cases it would be useful to know which sequence was used and how – exactly - the resulting data were analyzed. To figure that out the people who chose the sequence or did the analyzes should be known – which in the current mess of unregistered studies is much more likely if they are (co-)authors. Of course they also deserve to be on the paper if they had (substantial) work with the study but for them to become important at some point it doesn’t really matter how “scientific” their work was. The purely technical aspects can be just as important: How long did it take before blood was frozen, how (exactly) where the patients immobilized in the scanner, which arm was the blood pressure apparatus on, did the optic cables reliable transfer the signal and how was that made sure, …? One might say, that all these kind of information should be part of the publication but often it isn’t.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Another point is which responsibilities people involved in research have beyond their specific duties. While I generally think that the responsibility doesn’t extent (much) above ones area of expertise, I do think that everyone does have the responsibility not to knowingly do or support unethical stuff – and any unjustified or flawed study is unethical in my opinion. In this sense funding agencies share a great deal of responsibility and, once known, <a href="https://forbetterscience.com/2017/01/17/open-letter-in-support-of-my-investigation-of-trachea-transplants-in-germany-by-rafael-cantera/" target="_blank">the media are also responsible for reporting scientific misconduct</a>. However, of course it can be difficult to judge which studies are unethical or flawed.</span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(1) </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">If the data are manipulated “uncleverly” I do however think that the supervisor has some responsibility because he or she should be able to “see” that.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">(Unfortunately English is still not my native language. I'm sorry about that!<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">)</span> </span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-69696571508315687822017-02-05T12:59:00.003+01:002017-02-05T12:59:33.668+01:00A (very) critical "review" of CBT: activity planning<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">I have been
doing a cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) program for depression. In
<a href="http://nonsignificance.blogspot.de/2017/02/a-very-critical-review-of-cbt-PMR.html" target="_blank">yesterdays post</a> I described the <a href="http://nonsignificance.blogspot.de/2017/02/a-very-critical-review-of-cbt-PMR.html" target="_blank">relaxation classes</a> we had to do as part of the
program. Today I’d like to talk about the “activity planning” group.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">The group
was based on the notion that actions, feelings and thoughts influence each
other. Therefore – we were told – we just had to get
doing (pleasurable!) stuff again in order to feel better and have more pleasant thoughts. We
were handed a list of over 200 potentially pleasurable activities and had to do
one such activity alone and one together with other people for each class. Each
such activity furthermore had to be rated on a 1 to 10 rating scale in the
dimensions “mood”, “drive” and “ease of mind” before, during and after the
respective activity.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">While I
understand that it is important to get doing stuff – cos otherwise with absence
of or low drive you’d just lie in bed and eventually die of thirst (or lack
thereof) – I find that it is asked a bit much, that those activities should be perceived
as pleasurable. For me, it just made me feel even more like a loser, because I
couldn’t get any pleasure out of going for a walk, even though I tried. (“But
it’s nice out here… I just have to tell myself… It’s nice… Sun and wind and…. But
it sucks so much, why do I have to do this… I don’t have the energy, I’ll never
arrive at the other end of the street…. And how do I know if it’s nice, the
world is f*cked pretty much. It’s NOT nice. Climate change, and plastic in
water, air pollution…. Why do I have to walk here, it’s so exhausting…. And the
food we get here is wrapped all in plastic…. Which pollutes the seas….. But the
river is NICE…. I’ve to tell myself…… But I don’t want to lie, not to others
and not to me…… it’s not nice…. But maybe liars are the better people, at least
they make others happy and aren’t such failures….. I hate this.” And so on….).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">But what’s
more important than that potentially nice activities didn’t seem to work for me
is how to group was lead: It was instructed by whichever nurse had duty that day
and they seemed to have very different opinions about what constitutes a pleasurable
activity (independent of the list). While some accepted everything others had
very specific ideas and would even get mad at you if you did an activity which
they didn’t find pleasurable, for example tidying up or learning something (as
an activity alone) or skyping and chatting or tweeting (as an activity with
others). In their mind you had to get a massage or take a bath or color in
something as a nice activity alone and an activity with others had to involve
more than virtual contact (going to the cinema or a cafe would do). Now, I don’t find tidying up that pleasurable either,
but at least something’s done afterwards, i.e. there’s less mess. If I’d get a
massage I wouldn’t enjoy it and my place would be just as messy afterwards, so
therefore nothing would be gained. Probably I’d feel guilty for spending the
money on something I didn’t even enjoy, and like a failure for not enjoying
something which should be enjoyed. Therefore I prefer tidying up – it has the
better consequences. However, as I said, not everybody shares that opinion and
while of course everybody is entitled to theirs I find it unhelpful decry the
activities of people who tried their best to do (and enjoy...) them anyways. But
of course not every nurse was like that, some didn’t really give a shit (so
that the group ended within 5 minutes after everyone had recited their ratings)
and others were trying to be helpful and encouraging (e.g. by suggesting in which
other situations the said activity could be helpful or how the activity itself
could be improved or what could be done instead).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Overall, is
it helpful having to be doing a “pleasant” activity? Personally, I don’t think
so, because it’s just not pleasurable and not feeling anything nice made me
feel bad. *Just* doing some stuff, without any aspiration to finding it
pleasurable *might* be helpful: Not eating or not drinking (water ;) ) doesn’t
either, nor does not showering or not brushing teeth etc. But, in my
opinion, it can be unhelpful to hope for any pleasure doing these things.
Because if that’s the point and it’s too far away you might as well just not do
it.</span></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-18156151831786707632017-02-04T12:44:00.004+01:002017-03-05T15:45:17.934+01:00A (very) critical "review" of CBT: Progressive Muscle Relaxation<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I did an
inpatient CBT program for depression (as a patient) and I’d just like to
express my opinion about it (because in a lot of ways it sucked … and
apparently I’m not well enough to fill out their feedback form, so…). Of course
it’s just that, just my personal opinion and just based on personal experiences
at one time and at one place. Other people will have different experiences.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Whatever…</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">The program
consisted of relaxation, activity planning, a <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">mindfulness</span>-group, music
(and/or art) an “Info-Group” and of course the CBT itself (in a group and
individually with a therapist).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">In the
relaxation group we did <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_muscle_relaxation" target="_blank">Progressive Muscle Relaxation according to Jacobsen (PMR)</a>.
There
you have to tense a specific muscle (like you hand, your upper or lower
arm,
your foot, etc.) for a few seconds and then relax it according to
instructions.
Then you should focus on the difference between the tension and the
relaxation as
well as the difference between (say) the left and the right hand. This
relaxation technique is popular in Germany (I don’t know about
elsewhere) however
it does not work for me. (I tend to tension and relax my hands/fingers a
lot anyways, especially when I'm not well, but I don't do it according
to PMR guidelines; so therefore during the lessons I had to (try to) stop that.) That’s not their fault, obviously, however I had to do
the relaxation class during the entire time of my stay there, even though it had –
if any – the opposing effect on me. Most of the time the instructor read the
instructions from a piece of paper, but occasionally they just played a tape. Still,
the fact that you had to go there may be helpful for people for whom the PMR
works but who don’t have the motivation to do it on their own, when they are
not forced to. </span><span lang="EN-US"></span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;">(I
find it hard to find any empirical evidence that it works for depression, though.) </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">However, I think they vastly overestimate the amount of
people from whom it works, because they did not accept any kind of negative
feedback. At the end of each lesson there was a feedback round where you had to
say how you are now and most people stated that they felt more relaxed.
However, if you stated that you weren’t relaxed you still had to make up
something which supposedly was better (which reminds me of research). My
room-mate suggested I’d just say I’d me more relaxed to have my peace (which
REALLY reminds me of research).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">However,
the one thing that was helpful about the PMR for me was having the appointment
(where I had to go) itself; it structured the day a bit. But over all, I
had preferred if I hadn’t had to go there.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I may or
may not describe the other parts as well. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Don’t know yet.</span></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-91983301410288672872017-01-18T20:16:00.000+01:002017-01-18T20:53:13.323+01:00My dreams 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Hope you don't get nightmares... </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">1.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">I
have to do an MRI experiment, of course. For that purpose I have to
poke my participants with needels, lots of them, cause it’s fun to
investigate suffering. But – oh shit, I think - the needels are
magnetic. They’ll slice my poor participant into thousand pieces while
being scanned. I lean into the MRI-scanner to my screaming participant
and try everything to grap as many needels as many needels as I can
reach but this hurts my participant even more. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Versions
of this dream include me trying to convince my colleagues that they
can’t put the participant in the scanner prior to him being sliced up or
added fun with two participants simultaneously. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">2.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">My
supervisor wants me to build an inside fantasy world on top of the
research building. With parks and waterfalls and stuff. And of course an
airport, cos s/he is busy so how else should s/he get there. I keep
thinking that that’s impossible, an airplane can‘t land inside the top
floor of a building. Furthermore the groundplan of that planned top
floor is much greater then that of the building itself. I mention that,
but my supervisor just says that if I’m too dump for that I shall just
ask the experts. Unfortunately I’m having a hard time finding experts on
top story fantasy word building. However, to my surprise one day the
the site is finished and it looks good. However, I know that it isn’t, I
know that it’ll turn into a disaster and of course I’m right. The plane
flights through a tunnel, and which is connected to that top floor to
land on the airport and first it looks like it might just work out but
then there’s a wind or something, the plane bounces from one site of the
tunnel to the other and everything falls into pieces. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Versions
of that dream include a lot of stress because the human recouses depart
has disabled my card to enter the building and especially the top floor
or me going for a check in the fantasy dream world before my supervisor
visits and discovering plies of dead (park-) workers in a sideway. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">3.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I try to get somewhere. Home, to work, where ever. <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">But o</span>f course I don’t manage to get there. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I
may take a plane, which flies way too low between the buildings of a
random city. The plan has a steering wheel and somehow, I’m the one who
has to control it and try to avoid hitting any buildings. But it doesn’t
react to what I do. Furthermore I have to run back and forth between
the uncontrollable steering wheel and the back of the plane where people
want something from me, but I don’t understand what, so they get angry
and everyone screams at me. It’s windy, too. Sometimes strong winds hit
the plane from street canyons, and the damn steering wheel doesn’t
react. Eventually the plane crashes, with its nose into the asphalt of a
street. People are not pleased with that.</span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Or,
I may try to take a train (maybe a good idea after all these crashed
planes, one would think). But of course, it doesn’t work out. Purchasing
a ticket can be a complicated matter, especially in (my) dreams. The
ticket machine may calculate a ridiculously long journey with several
overnight stays at scary rail stations for an actually short distance.
Or the ticket machine explodes when I try to purchase my ticket. Or,
what could be a nice dream but isn’t, the ticket machine gives me back
way too much money. I don’t know what to do with it i.e. how to handle
the situation and get the money I falsely received back to its rightful
owner(s). I can’t leave it there, because then obviously someone will
take it. I can’t take it myself because I don’t have enough pockets and
I’m clumsy and drop it everywhere. While I try to pick one coin up again
I lose 10 others. People chase me for the money. I forget the rest in
the ticket machine. My trains don’t arrive and the prediction on which
track they’ll arrive changes constantly. After some chasing over some
tracks I decide just to wait on the track I’m at till my train arrives
there. (Good plan, no? :D). But police is after me for the money I just
wanted to bring to the lost-properties office. (Another great plan,
right? …. That reminds me of a real situation in Munich where I found a
50 Euro note in a train (S-Bahn) station on the moving stairs. I was so
confused by that, that I turned to the person next to me and asked him
if it was his…..). I get arrested, my attempts to explain myself fail.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Alternatively
I have a ticket, but I need to bring my little sister with me and like
always the announced tracks change constantly. We chase through station
hall after station hall without getting anywhere. I realize we need to
get underground but the underground part of the station is all flooded.
It’s supposed to be like that, it’s just me and apparently my sister who
can’t breathe under water. Not only that, but there’s also an
underwater obstacle course which we have to solve in order to get
somewhere. Unfortunately I fail and my little sister drowns.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I spare you the versions of that dream in which I accidentally kill my grandmother, my father or other random people.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Sleep well.</span></span></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-19814652319550919542016-05-11T22:53:00.001+02:002016-05-23T22:08:07.348+02:00Bullshitting.<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">A few weeks ago <a href="https://twitter.com/richarddmorey?lang=en" target="_blank">Richard Mor<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">e</span>y</a> wrote a <a href="http://bayesfactor.blogspot.de/2016/04/how-to-train-undergraduate.html" target="_blank">blog post</a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6580640896819888115#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a> about how undergraduate students in psychology learn to bullshit (i.a.) by criticizing peer-reviewed papers (which are difficult to criticize because they shouldn’t contain any severe and easily detectable errors anymore).</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">When I was studying we didn’t have to write any essays or to criticize any studies. So maybe I didn’t learn about the art of bullshitting well enough. However, I believe that the problem that bullshitting is rewarded is even greater than that: Guessing an answer in an exam and bullshitting a bit around is almost always better than stating that you don’t know.</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">My first MSc-exam was in Clinical psychology. I think, I had learned really well<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6580640896819888115#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[2]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a>, but as this was an important – and also basically<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6580640896819888115#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[3]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a> my first oral – exam, I was very nervous. The first question the professor asked me was: <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span>Why is the prevalence of major depression increasing?<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span> And I didn’t know! I didn’t even know it was increasing! But if s/he asked that, that must be, right? So I mentally went through all the text-books I’d worked through, searching for the part where they explained *why* more people today are depressed then in the past. I mean, it could be anything, or nothing. More divorces, different foods, more or different industries, different expectations or stressors, different lifestyles? Vaccinations? Exams?<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6580640896819888115#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[4]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a> But my professor hadn’t asked for some hypotheses or my opinion but *why* that is. And I didn’t know! So I told him/her so, while I kept searching mentally in the text-books and all my notes. His/her next question was *if* I *knew* the theories for depression. As I was still desperately trying to come up with a better answer than <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span>I don’t know<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span> for his/her first question, I just said “yes”, because, well, I knew. At this point, I think s/he possibly felt pranked, because apparently s/he wanted me to name (or explain) those theories not be told that I knew them. Upon clarification I of course explained the theories to her/him, but I had real trouble understanding what s/he wanted from me throughout the whole exam.</span></span></span></span> </div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">It occurred later, much later, to me that s/he probably wanted to ask a <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span>nice<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span> first question whereby my task had been to bullshit something together, despite not knowing. Who knows *if* and *why* the prevalence truly is increasing and *if so* compared to when?</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">I don’t blame that professor for my inability to understand my task correctly, so please don’t take me wrong. Of course I could have said: I don’t know… for this and that reason… one would need to know this and that to answer this question. Certainly that would have been much better, but I thought she wanted an answer to the question and not some justification why I don’t have it.</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">A lot of people will say <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span>Yeah, but you have to think beyond the facts and combine all the knowledge you have. Everybody can learn some facts so there’s no value in echoing some books without thinking about it by yourself!<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span> And it<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">'</span>s true, it<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">'</span>s certainly an advantage to be able to think even during – or especially during – exams. But then at least frame the question like it. (E.g. <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span>I<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">'</span>m interested in your opinion/thoughts. Let’s assume the prevalence of major depression was increasing. What could be possible factors that may – or may not – contribute to that? And how could one test if those factors actually do contribute to an increase in the prevalence? What would possible problems in testing those hypotheses be?<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span></span>) Otherwise it invites to bullshitting.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">But then, on the other hand, bullshiting seems to be an essential <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">skill</span> in many aspects of life… maybe that is why they select by that….</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[Sorry if that post is to bullshitty itself, obviously it’s just my opinion (and experience) and no knowledge… Also sorry for language-errors.]</span></span></span> </div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6580640896819888115#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></sup></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Link: </span><a href="http://bayesfactor.blogspot.de/2016/04/how-to-train-undergraduate.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">http://bayesfactor.blogspot.de/2016/04/how-to-train-undergraduate.html</span></a></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></sup></span></span></sup></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6580640896819888115#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[2]</span></sup></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> <span style="font-size: 11pt;">Or at least A LOT! Probably much more than what was good for me…</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></sup></span></span></sup></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6580640896819888115#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[3]</span></sup></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> <span style="font-size: 11pt;">Apart from a tiny part of my final school exams. But that was just a tiny part<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> and therefore</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> not nearly as important.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6580640896819888115#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[4]</span></sup></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> <span style="font-size: 11pt;">Not really.</span></span></span></span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-6582563324550381042016-04-17T18:04:00.000+02:002016-04-17T18:11:04.745+02:00"I should sell tickets to everyone who wants to see my patient"...<div class="MsoNormal">
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;">A few weeks ago a colleague of mine, who is a psychotherapist, told my colleagues and me about a patient of his, because he needed some help with questionnaires and other things. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;">He had to treat this patient because of our supervisors wish. However, he personally thought that his patient was totally crazy proceded to explain why. Due to his explanations some other people wanted to see the patient, and he joked he should sell tickets and get rich by showing the patient to others. When he left he mentioned that it’s just not possible to have empathy with someone like that, because he can’t put himself in the patient’s position. Everyone agreed.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;">While this may be the most insulting (that’s my opinion, obviously not the opinion of others) thing I’ve ever heard here about a patient, it happens quite regularly that people are making fun of or laughing about patients (not everyone! But some people.). Mostly (again, my opinion) for really minor things like talking too much or misunderstandings. I’ve always felt really uncomfortable with that.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;">However, what irritates me is that he mentioned that he just can’t have empathy with the patient because of the patient’s behavior. That may be. I can’t understand the patients behavior either, but my understanding was, that that is (in part) why it is a disorder and not just perfectly reasonable and understandable human behavior?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;">Sometimes I get the feeling that psychologist as well as doctors just "understand" situations (behaviors, thoughts, …) that seems to some degree reasonable to them, and, at best, perfectly fit the diagnostic criteria for a disorder.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">I don’t understand any better. But I don’t understand the slander either.</span><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">What is your opinion on this?</span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-12713537133392972472016-01-28T23:09:00.000+01:002016-01-30T16:24:26.140+01:00What should you *ask* at an interview for a PhD position? (Part 1)<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">There are a lot of advice books out there which tell you what to answer
to all those mean questions that you might be asked at a job interview.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">They might be more or less useful. However, they never tell you what to *ask*
in order to find out if a PhD-position is or isn’t a good one. (At least I
haven’t found any book that tells that. And I read a lot of these books before
applying to my PhD-position because relying on my social skills would have been
foolish.)<span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftn1" title="">[1]</a></span></sup></span></sup></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">But don’t worry, I’ll tell you ;). </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Of course this list is subjective, but maybe it can give some ideas about
what could possibly be relevant to someone who is looking for a PhD-position.
Because at the time I didn’t ask any of these things. I was just glad they took
me<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">...</span> :/</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">This first part is related to questions about the project you are
applying for<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">...</span> further parts will be related to the supervisor/professor and the
group you are (potentially) going to work with and the working environment.<a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[2]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Most often when you apply for a PhD-position in a specific project a
short description of the project is given in the job-advertisement.<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span>But this description is generally very short and doesn't tell much at all what it's really about.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Therefore I think the supervisor or whoever does the interview should
introduce you more to the topic, the background theories and how the specific
question is planned to be answered.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">With how I don't mean answers like "with fMRI" or "with
TMS" (what most likely the job-description already tells), but a more
specific explanation of the planned study design, so that you can (try to) judge
if that is realistic to accomplish or not. For that purpose it would be useful
to get a copy of the project-proposal. It would spare the supervisor time and
you could assess by yourself if you think it's realistic. Yes, in theory any
funded research project has already been through a selection process during
which, among other things, the feasibility of the research idea should have
been evaluated. However, that is the theory. It seems to me, that in practice no
one in these selection committees does some basic reality checks. Therefore
you’ve to do it by yourself. <a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[3]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a>However,
a lot of researchers might not like to give their proposal out because they
might fear that you steal their brilliant ideas. That is fine<a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[4]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a>,
but in this case I still think they should give enough background information
to make judgements possible.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Of course it is possible that the study design is not yet developed (though
I think at least a rough study design should be part of the proposal). I think that that should be <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">mentioned</span> as it involves more uncertainty then.<a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[5]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">So whether or not you get the research proposal, what are the critical
points to check?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">First, I think it is important information which population should be
examined. Patients with rare disorders might be difficult or impossible to
recruit for participation in a demanding experiment.<a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[6]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a>
That does not mean that such research should not be carried out. I doubt that
difficulty in recruitment is related to the importance of the research, but it
should be taken into account: You might end up with a very long recruitment
phase and/or a very <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">small</span> sample size. So be prepared to conduct an
underpowered study...</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">The other important factor is how many participants should take part in
the study in total in comparison to the measurement time per participant and
the available lab/MRI time. In general, the longer the experiment the lower the
change to get enough time to do the measurements. Also take into account that
one day has 24h available hours at maximum.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">As next, I would consider number of methods to be learned. It takes time
to learn to analyze an fMRI design, but there might be much more you have to
learn. You might have to do additional MRI-recordings and analysis.<a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[7]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a>
Furthermore you may have to or want to run additional recordings in parallel to
the MRI (like skin conductance, heart rate, breathing, or even EEG) or an
additional part of the study might be done with EEG, TMS, eye-tracking, virtual
reality or something like that. It might be exciting to learn a lot of methods;
but it takes time. Therefore I think it is an important point to take into
consideration. A finished PhD with just one or two methods is probably much
more worth than an unfinished PhD with 10 half-learned methods. Of course a
number of factors might influence how hard it is to learn various methods. I’ll
speak about that in a later post.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">It might also be important to ask if the project is already running and
if so at which stage it is. I'm not saying it's good or bad if the project is
already running, but it might be important information. You likely won't be
involved in the experimental design then, but on the other hand data (to
publish!) might be available faster (and: it's running!). The important question then is, though, to
whom the data <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span>belong<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span>, i.e. who is allowed to publish with them? <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Th<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">is</span> is a</span> question
that can lead to huge fights in some groups.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Speaking about already running experiments, I’d furthermore say that it
is <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span>dangerous<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">"</span> to start with any new method that has not been applied by anyone
in the department/institute before. Even if it should work in theory (it surely
should, otherwise no one would use it, right?) it might be that the hard- or
software used at the institute is not compatible to what you (or the research
proposal) plan. If you can check the compatibility, do so.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Also, whether you got the proposal to read or not, try to read background
studies on the subject. If you got the proposal, you can find them by yourself,
if you didn’t get it I think you should ask for them. The professor might tell
you, that it is sufficient if you read them once you got the position (which
may sound nice), but I think that is kind of too late.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Though it's still possible to terminate a PhD later (i.e. once you have
enough insight into the project) it's harder because of the time you've invested.<a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[8]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">So try to find out if the background studies are sound<a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftn9" name="_ftnref9" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[9]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a>,
especially if it are background studies from the same department.<a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftn10" name="_ftnref10" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[10]</span></sup></span></sup></span></a>
And if you have to do a direct or indirect replication of work done previously
by your supervisor, <a href="https://youtu.be/hzMviyvci7I" target="_blank">run away</a>.</span><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftn11" name="_ftnref11" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 9pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[11]</span></span></sup></span></sup></span></a><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 9pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></sup></span></sup></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">P.S.: <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Sorry for my english<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">. I deleted about half of my te<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">xt (bc too long), so I hope it makes still some sense...</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">And for the next post I'll complain about w<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">h<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">ich handy feature the <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">E</span>nglish language is missing.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">P.S<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">. 2:</span> I really hope <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">this is not misunderstood as ad<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">vice on how to get an "easy" PhD. It's not meant to be! </span></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span></span></div>
<br clear="all" />
<hr size="1" style="margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px;" width="33%" />
<br />
<div id="ftn1">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></span></sup></span></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> [Though, reading those books was already a good start into wasting
a lot of time since I was not asked any of those weird questions during the job
interviews (for wh<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">at I should be glad)</span>. It seems social skills are not a selection criteria*. Obviously
those questions might also be pretty unvalid and unreliable, especially if more
people are like me and just learn the “correct” answer from a book, but considering
all the unreliability of research I doubt that that is why they are not used to
determine who’s a good candidate. *They might be success criteria though. More
on that later.]</span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[2]</span></span></sup></span></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> [This distinction is a bit artificial, but I didn't want to write
an even longer post than I already wrote. Especially since not everything
applies to everybody.]</span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn3">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[3]</span></span></sup></span></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> [Although it would of course be better if a selection committee of
experts did that and not a student who hasn’t even started a PhD-training yet.]</span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn4">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project" name="_ftn4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[4]</span></span></sup></span></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> [I guess in some areas it's more realistic than in others.]</span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn5">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[5]</span></span></sup></span></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> [If in need for a list what can go wrong, contact me ;) ]</span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn6">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[6]</span></span></sup></span></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> [For animal-studies it might
be that some animals are difficult to get. For example mice with a specific
gene modification. But I don’t work in animal-research, so I don’t know much
about that.]</span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn7">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[7]</span></span></sup></span></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> [Like, for example, morphometry, DTI (diffusion tensor imaging), functional
connectivity (e.g. PPI), resting state analyses (e.g. ICA), MR spectroscopy,
ASL (arterial spin labeling), or another fancy (new) method.]</span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn8">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[8]</span></span></sup></span></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> [Time-investment sound <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">way too</span> nice... I don't want to
scare anyone away from a PhD. Just choose the project carefully. Otherwise it might be more than just time.]</span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn9">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftnref9" name="_ftn9" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[9]</span></span></sup></span></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> [or not less so than an “average” study]</span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn10">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftnref10" name="_ftn10" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[10]</span></span></sup></span></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> [Which would not be surprising because it makes sense to build new
work on previous work, but it can lead to a lot of trouble when they are... not good.]</span></span></div>
</div>
<span style="font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.nonsignificance.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-to-ask-at-phd-job-interview-project.html#_ftnref11" name="_ftn11" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[11]</span></span></sup></span></span></span></sup></span></a><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> [I think more replications should be done, because every study can
have positive results just by chance. Together with a publication bias towards
positive findings, this means that it is hard to know which findings to trust.
However, I think that replications should be independent. Or preregistered with
signed contracts that any result will get published from all parties involved.]</span></span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-22330094353172973352016-01-08T22:45:00.000+01:002016-01-13T19:08:00.868+01:00A little workshop on data-fabrication...?<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I saw something in a paper which didn't make much sense to me... Of course it is also possible that I’m
just stupid and overlooking explanations... so I’ll write here what I found and
you can decide on your own.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">This is a
table I reproduced from that paper. The reason I don’t simply make a screenshot
of the table in the paper is that I could be false. And in that case I don’t
want to falsely accuse the paper (or its authors) of error. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">So I tried
to provide some anonymity to the paper… (for now).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikipsyRMewED2YReQcEWDy9axm7GecGXhuoFWvi-zXHw-cBowTLCXhgOxcIQiVMsc3H5lCFSg_wN1XJFjwhFfzJbcS93TZkQEwpCSKrmRYEe2DGbstDClehIfw1Fb0H8P0WJvzW1Vvy3of/s1600/table_from_paper.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikipsyRMewED2YReQcEWDy9axm7GecGXhuoFWvi-zXHw-cBowTLCXhgOxcIQiVMsc3H5lCFSg_wN1XJFjwhFfzJbcS93TZkQEwpCSKrmRYEe2DGbstDClehIfw1Fb0H8P0WJvzW1Vvy3of/s400/table_from_paper.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"></span></span></div>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Pre are
measurements taken before... something... and post afterwards (if you didn't guess it). </span></span></span></div>
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</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">The same
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<br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">What
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">So I tried
to find some numbers that would fulfill the criteria given (mean, standard
deviation and range) for these 4 (or 8) variables. First my "results" for the first four
variables pre:</span></span></span></div>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">As you can
see I managed to find values (for each participant) that add up to the given
mean for every variable. (I should note here that the third and the fourth
variable are ratings on a numerical (not visual) rating scale, so values other
than other than X.0 and X.5 might not be so likely.) </span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I also tried to get the SD
as much to the given value as possible. You see what I was able to get. </span></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">(SD excel
is the SD calculated by excel and SD me is the SD calculated by me with help of
excel, i.e. I set up the formula myself cos I didn’t know what formula excel
was using. I didn’t calculate it by hand though, because there would be no chance
to get a correct result that way.)</span></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">The SDs
(dark blue row) I got are much higher than the given SDs for the first two
variables (variable 1 pre and 2 pre).</span></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I don’t
know, obviously there’s a chance that I’m just dumb and didn’t do it correct. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">In order to get a lower SDs than those I got, I then replaced these numbers (for 2 to 20) with the mean of the
first and the last value. I can’t change the first and the last value, because
they are given in the table. Obviously, when I do that the mean is not "correct"
anymore, but I should get the
lowest possible SD (min and max value fixed) with that, shouldn't I? </span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Apparently, for
the first two variables the SD is still a lot higher than the given SD. (For
the third and fourth variable I was able to get the same (very close, but I
could have tried longer) SD as given in the table anyways.)</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">In the next
table you can see that this is similar for these variables in post:</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Just for
the variables 1 and 2 (pre and post) I couldn’t find any values that met the
criteria. </span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">So I thought maybe the authors inadvertently reported the SEM instead
of the SD. Maybe it is possible to call the SEM SD because after all the SEM is
a measurement of deviation which is standardized too.</span></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Therefore I tried to get the SEM to be the value reported for the SD:</span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">That is
possible for the first to variables (pre and post) but I didn’t manage to do
that for the third and fourth variable. </span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Maybe they
reported the SEM for Variable 1 and 2 and the SD for Variable 3 and 4. <b>I don’t know. The other possibility is that
I made a mistake, obviously.</b> </span></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Anyways… in
the paper they did t-tests with these variables. So I tried
to do that too… Obviously I don’t know in which order the values were… so
if I just take my </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">fabricated </span></span></span>values I get a far off t-value.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Sorry for my SPSS speaking German, but it isn’t important
anyways (as it is obvious that this gives the false t-values):</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyvVHHV2gEMlvb_kmDto-Cls7YrSxiEfkrrP3ZSEFAZEiwCrjEujCPE2muMA34KT1SqUCiUHLmo68b3jPs4dc8VGwF3KRQYwuNVIm5evefrJmYmWla6SIS2Bf1VYHkzhyphenhyphenBvmUGXKQW6Sw_/s1600/t-test-mit-ersten-daten.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyvVHHV2gEMlvb_kmDto-Cls7YrSxiEfkrrP3ZSEFAZEiwCrjEujCPE2muMA34KT1SqUCiUHLmo68b3jPs4dc8VGwF3KRQYwuNVIm5evefrJmYmWla6SIS2Bf1VYHkzhyphenhyphenBvmUGXKQW6Sw_/s640/t-test-mit-ersten-daten.PNG" width="640" /></a></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">At least I
saw some significances in that output window for once… </span>:( </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US"></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">And mean,
SD and SEM are about the same as in my Excel calculation.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb3CVLjasJoa87kVMkcVSM87g0kNzWSqWC_BjLBmdG8o2Vp54RtcvhzSrWMcTY4dcwFxuyOa55sKunJLk7D8J7m4T25O6ftDJ92K7LFQ71NsCko9J_dmadt5y2hwLLN7bSN7xJLMXd5jlu/s1600/t-test_dekr-mit-ersten-daten.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb3CVLjasJoa87kVMkcVSM87g0kNzWSqWC_BjLBmdG8o2Vp54RtcvhzSrWMcTY4dcwFxuyOa55sKunJLk7D8J7m4T25O6ftDJ92K7LFQ71NsCko9J_dmadt5y2hwLLN7bSN7xJLMXd5jlu/s640/t-test_dekr-mit-ersten-daten.png" width="640" /></a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">So I
calculated what the Sum of the (distance to the mean)² of the differences
between the two conditions (pre and post) needs to be in order to get </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">* the
"correct" mean difference between the samples </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">* and therefore also the "correct" t-value.</span></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Here’s a
table for that:</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiSF5LeupV2iL0FjZhTCwU6Hs54pgu_2oZHrS79sboAR5k00g4ohPCWU9Ynte4y1qqmrIfUxBixRVpmfThoE3VH8_p4vY0LStf1T91zVckFyYGIeOIIB-R-5mvnG4eI3Lov6HXNGvXYswY/s1600/dist_to_mean_squard.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiSF5LeupV2iL0FjZhTCwU6Hs54pgu_2oZHrS79sboAR5k00g4ohPCWU9Ynte4y1qqmrIfUxBixRVpmfThoE3VH8_p4vY0LStf1T91zVckFyYGIeOIIB-R-5mvnG4eI3Lov6HXNGvXYswY/s640/dist_to_mean_squard.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Then I
tweaked my… why not call them "data" ("data" not: data) to fit these criteria.</span></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Although I
was not able to reproduce exactly these numbers, it went quite well and I got
pretty close. </span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Obviously there are a lot of solutions, especially if I don't meet the SD-criteria for each Variable as specified in the table (I could have tried for the 3rd and 4th variable, but I didn't).</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7Vw7GJbyc0dNJ8XLZPNtL_ZGbFXndp2cse7b442FXjHaP4Mt-SMLFOyAF8zh_UkYo1tjDP8-fS6Gnzi8O0GzyiZnpBOS537LyPq_j1btwafXHjuUQ1LS75EC0NzttZWrmIWnR7vGyNAKj/s1600/t-test-results.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7Vw7GJbyc0dNJ8XLZPNtL_ZGbFXndp2cse7b442FXjHaP4Mt-SMLFOyAF8zh_UkYo1tjDP8-fS6Gnzi8O0GzyiZnpBOS537LyPq_j1btwafXHjuUQ1LS75EC0NzttZWrmIWnR7vGyNAKj/s640/t-test-results.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">H</span>ere </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">(one possible set of )</span></span> the individual "data" I used to get this values:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Btw, I
gained some data-fabrication knowledge doing this (which I had not previously had!! All my
data are honestly p-hacked :( :(</span><span lang="EN-US"> <span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></span></span>).
Want to hire me?</span></span></span></div>
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<br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">SPSS too thinks that the new t-values are much better:</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I know this might seem like a really small point... since the t-values are all possible and hopefully correct. I don't know. It's relevant for effect-size estimation, for example. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I can be false (just to say this again, because maybe I'm not seeing something really obvious).</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Another point I noticed is that they report a mean of 0.36 (SD=0.29) in some questionaire data. I can't say anything about this, since I don't know their participants personally, but seriously... I doubt it. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I found this graph which represents the answer-distribution for a non-clinical population for either this scale or a quite similar one (it's not clear to me from the paper; there is a long and a short version):</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">The reported mean for that scale (out of that other study) is 9.4 with a SD of 7.83). My participants (healthy controls) have a mean value of 12.4 (with min=4, max=19, and SD=3.5). Of course the mean can be lower (then there) in different populations at a different time and if especially people with probably low values in that questionaire are recruited. But 0.36 seems <b>really</b> low to me.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I don't know if they did some transformations on that or whatever, but it is not reported. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Oh, and even though I obviously didn't report a lot of varibles/values from that study I didn't omit a control group... it's just pre and post. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">(Again, I don't exclude my stupidity at all. Sorry for the repetition.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">I thought very long about whether or not to post this, but I think the SD and the mean of the questionaire are too low...) </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US">Obviously p-hacking is bad
too! I’m well aware of that. I don’t even know what is worse…</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">edit/addition: </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">1. I didn't want to imply that the data were fabricated. I don't think so!! The title refers to what I did in this post. I think it wouldn't make much sense if the data (of the SD-variables) were fabricated, because even then they should have an SD that is possible (if I'm right that the one they report is not possible with that mean and range). (And the reported t-value is possible with much higher SDs.)</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">For the mean on the questionnaire-data I think it is most likely that it is either a mistake, the data were transformed (though that is not mentioned) or the participants were influenced.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">And while I'm at it, I think there could be two other possible mistakes in that paper. One is relatively clear (because they report the study protocol in a slightly different order at different points in the paper) and the other it is not certain imo. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span lang="EN-US">2. <a href="http://www.neurotroph.de/about/" target="_blank">Christopher</a> at the <a href="http://www.neurotroph.de/" target="_blank">neurotroph</a>-blog did some R-simulations on the Standard Deviations. You can read his blog-post <a href="http://www.neurotroph.de/2016/01/mixing-up-standard-errors-and-standard-deviations/" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-34656309530548509812015-12-24T02:17:00.003+01:002015-12-24T20:40:01.258+01:00Are todays experiments more unethical than Milgrams?<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Everyone
knows about Milgrams famous experiment. At least the patients I can hear from
my office discussing it do. In case you don’t know it, here’s a short summary: </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Milgram has
tested in the 60<sup>th</sup> of the last century how willing his participants
(ordinary people without any special interest in harming others) were to follow
orders from an authority (the experimenter) even if they had to put another
person in danger for that. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In his
experiments the participant was given the role of a teacher whose task was to
give electrical shocks to a learner whenever the learner did a mistake in a
word-paring task. The learner was a conferderate and not really harmed by the
electrical shocks. However the subject didn’t know this: he was given a
trial-shock himself before the experiment in order to make the
electrical-stimulator more believable and then placed in a separate room than
the learner. </span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbt-tMqGnP_ygZtWq4KGrmfC3-RB7Z9xwMX3On59ZsoTtGhoqYLlP59rJNsV3jQFvFnH0Kq6No7CoW79Hw1dq7OX9KCyjNyu9_QupHH9jnBzTkeLUQorP5PDukU9Rh8TKG1ZQtRfF4cf5b/s1600/378px-Milgram_experiment_v2.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbt-tMqGnP_ygZtWq4KGrmfC3-RB7Z9xwMX3On59ZsoTtGhoqYLlP59rJNsV3jQFvFnH0Kq6No7CoW79Hw1dq7OX9KCyjNyu9_QupHH9jnBzTkeLUQorP5PDukU9Rh8TKG1ZQtRfF4cf5b/s320/378px-Milgram_experiment_v2.svg.png" width="252" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">"<a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Milgram_experiment_v2.svg#/media/File:Milgram_experiment_v2.svg">Milgram experiment v2</a>" by <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Fred_the_Oyster" title="User:Fred the Oyster">Fred the Oyster</a> - </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Licensed under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0" title="Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0">CC BY-SA 4.0</a> via <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/">Commons</a></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></span></span></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In Milgrams
first experiment 65% of participants continued until the final voltage of 450
V, even though they probably believed the learner was in danger(1, 2): The stimulator
was labeled with “Danger: Serve Shock” at 375 Volt (and the four steps following
that) and only with “XXX” at 435V and 450V. Furthermore the (supposed) learner
pounded against the wall at 300V and 315V and is not heard afterwards, i.e. he
doesn’t answer anymore. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This
experiment has been repeated several times by Milgram himself and others under
slightly different conditions to find out which factors lead to obedience.
However, in all the experiments a high proportion of participants “cooperated”
until the final shock, despite experiencing high stress while doing so. (2)</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Today, it
is said, ethic committees would not allow this study anymore, precisely because
of the high stress that was inflicted on the participants.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">However, I
wonder, what differentiates “modern” studies from that of Milgrams. Participants
are still stressed and potentially harmed. I’m thinking about PTSD-studies
where participants suffering from post-traumatic-stress-disorder are shown
pictures related to their trauma, stress-studies where participants are
stressed as much as possible in order to investigate the biological and
psychological responses to stressors in healthy participants as well as in participants
suffering from various disorders, pain-studies where the conditions which lead
to more or less subjective pain or the pain-inhibitory system(s) is/are
examined, conditioning-studies which involve learned helplessness and so on…</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now
obviously the potential harm that is done to the participants is weighted
against potential benefits of the study: the goal of such studies is to find
mechanisms that make people more vulnerable to disorders or those that would
potentially lead to the development of new treatments: after all, something has
to be learned about disorders or suffering in general in order to understand
and reduce it. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But, I don’t
know… </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Milgram
explains (as one of 13 potential contributing factors for the obedience of his
subjects) that “the experiment is, on the face of it, designed to attain a
worthy purpose – advancement of knowledge about learning and memory. Obedience
occurs not as an end in itself, but as an instrumental element in a situation
that the subject construes as significant, and meaningful. He may not be able
to see its full significance, but he may properly assume that the experimenter
does.” (3)</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">All
experiments should be designed to “[A]ttain a worth purpose – advancement of
knowledge”, aren’t they? I think it would be bad if they weren’t (4)… but are
they also significant in meaning?</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I think, a
study of which we don’t have any clue whether or not the reported results are
(likely) true or not can’t be meaningful. (5)</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Reproducibility
in psychology is low (6) and most neuroscientific studies are underpowered (7).
Ioannidis (8) famous paper shows that “most published research findings [in
biomedical research] are false.” Negative findings remain often unpublished.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Yet, for
all the p-hacked and unreproduceable studies a lot of resources were used (or
wasted): Money that could have been spend otherwise, as well as time and effort
of the participants and the people conducting, writing, publishing and reading
the study. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And maybe
worse than that, some subjects suffer under the study – like the fake subjects (the
learners) in Milgrams study did: they are given electrical shocks, shown awful
pictures, brought into situations they fear or reminded on their worst times. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Is this
right? If there were true meaning, such experiments might be justified. The
subjects sign a consent form and they know they are free to leave any time. But
just like the real subjects (the teachers) in Milgrams studies, they usually
don’t leave because they think they are helping science advance and develop new
treatments. They don’t know about statistical problems, p-hacking and the
pressure to publish anything out of a pile of underpowered noise. They don’t
know the study they are participating in might be meaningless.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But I do. (9)
I have tortured participants knowing the experiment is worthless. I will
probably do similar things again. New study new hunt for statistical
significances on the cost of participants. This is very false.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I don’t
know what to do about it, I really don’t. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Since not
every study involves mental of physical pain for the subjects, I could
concentrate on such studies or search for another job. But while that might
allow me more sleep at night (likely not) it wouldn’t solve the problem (10). After
all the studies are not stressful/painful/frightening for the participants because
we want to torture them, but because it is seen as necessary for the “</span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">advancement</span></span>
of knowledge” about these states (11).</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Therefore what remains is that studies should have sufficient power </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">and be carefully designed </span></span> to detect effects when present and to avoid unnecessary harm. Everybody agrees with that, yet it is not done.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As a PhD-student I'm not in the position to change that (and I don't know if anyone is). It is false to conduct worthless experiments, that (potentially) harm the participants and it is false to do nothing just to reduce own stress.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So what should I do? </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">______________________________________________</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(1) In an
interview after the experiment the subjects were asked what they think how
painful the last shocks where for the learner on 14-point scale from “not
painful at all” to “extremely painful” and the mean answer was 13.42. </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://www.columbia.edu/cu/psychology/terrace/w1001/readings/milgram.pdf" target="_blank">Milgram, S. (1963). Behavioral Study of Obedience. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 67(4). [PDF-link] </a></span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://www.columbia.edu/cu/psychology/terrace/w1001/readings/milgram.pdf" target="_blank">(see page 5 of pdf / page 375)</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(2) Furthermore,
according to Milgrams description many subjects were extremely nervous upon administering
the high electrical shocks. They “sweat, tremble, stutter, bite their lips,
groan, and dig their finger-nails into their flesh.” <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/cu/psychology/terrace/w1001/readings/milgram.pdf" target="_blank"> Milgram, S. (1963). Behavioral Study of Obedience. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 67(4). [PDF-link] (see page 5 of pdf / page 375)</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(3) Milgram
writes that here: <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/cu/psychology/terrace/w1001/readings/milgram.pdf" target="_blank"> Milgram, S. (1963). Behavioral Study of Obedience. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 67(4). [PDF-link] (see page 7 of pdf / page 377, point 2)</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">See also: </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://www.plosbiology.org/article/fetchObject.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001426&representation=PDF" target="_blank">Haslam
SA, Reicher SD (2012) Contesting the “Nature” Of Conformity: What
Milgram and Zimbardo's Studies Really Show. PLoS Biol 10(11): e1001426.
doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1001426 [PDF-link] (page 3)</a></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">“However, some of the most compelling evidence that participants'
administration of shocks results from their identification with Milgram's
scientific goals comes from what happened after the study had ended. In his
debriefing, Milgram praised participants for their commitment to the
advancement of science, especially as it had come at the cost of personal
discomfort. This inoculated them against doubts concerning their own punitive
actions, but it also it led them to support more of such actions in the future.
“I am happy to have been of service,” one typical participant responded,
“Continue your experiments by all means as long as good can come of them. In
this crazy mixed up world of ours, every bit of goodness is needed” (S. Haslam,
SD Reicher, K Millward, R MacDonald, unpublished data). […] what is
shocking about Milgram's experiments is that rather than being distressed by
their actions, participants could be led to construe them as “service” in the
cause of “goodness.” […]”</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(4) Which
of course is possible: A goal of scientific experiments can also be to have
something to publish or to “show” that one is right (even if that is not
clear).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(5) The
reasoning behind a study can still be meaningful of course. E.g. if a treatment
were tested, that might be meaningful. But any study which tests it with
getting a true result at or below chance-level isn’t imo.</span></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(6)
Reproducibility project: <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/349/6251/aac4716" target="_blank">Open Science Collaboration. (2015). Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science. Science, 349. doi:10.1126/science.aac4716 </a></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Summary/comment
here: <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/over-half-of-psychology-studies-fail-reproducibility-test-1.18248" target="_blank">Baker, M. (2015). Over half of psychology studies fail reproducibility test. Nature News. doi:10.1038/nature.2015.18248 </a> </span></span></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(7) <a href="http://www.nature.com/nrn/journal/v14/n5/full/nrn3475.html" target="_blank">Button, K. et al. (2013). Power failure: Why small sample size undermines the reliability of neuroscience. Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 14, 365-376. doi:10.1038/nrn3475 </a> </span></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(8)<a href="http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/fetchObject.action?uri=info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.0020124&representation=PDF" target="_blank">Ioannidis, J. (2005). Why Most Published Research Findings Are False. PLoS Medicine, 2(8). doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124 [PDF-link]</a> </span></span></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(9) And
others know too. I just don’t want to speak for other people, because I don’t
know what they really think.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(10) That’s
what horrible persons always say, right? But I don't know whats right.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(11) It
would of course still be possible to invite participants that feel stressed at
the moment to the lab when they experience that emotion. But obviously this has
clear disadvantages since there were much more confounding variables then.
Probably the disadvantages are so big that this would do even more harm, when
it can be done otherwise. But I don’t know. In some/lots of instances this is
of course the only possibility anyways. In others I don’t know if it would make
any sense at all. That would then be a total waste as well.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Also
interesting: </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://neuron4.psych.ubc.ca/~schaller/Psyc591Readings/Blass1999.pdf" target="_blank">Blass, T. (1999). The Milgram Paradigm After 35 Years: Some Things We Now Know About Obedience to Authority. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 29(5), 955-978. [PDF-link]</a></span></span><br />
<a href="http://www.shimer.edu/live/files/338-obediencemilgrampdf" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Milgram, S. (1974). Obedience to authority: An experimental view. New York: Harper & Row. [PDF-link] </span></span></a></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-48222172199075677532015-12-17T22:04:00.000+01:002015-12-24T10:44:48.722+01:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-81990549708581016512015-12-14T22:03:00.001+01:002015-12-22T18:14:11.912+01:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">(Sorry for grammar mistakes. If you see them write me a message (comment)).</span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-42403690005529400962015-12-10T22:23:00.000+01:002015-12-24T10:43:55.653+01:00What is probability?<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Let’s think of a lottery. What
is the probability that you get a prize? Of course you don’t know because you
don’t know how many lottery tickets are marked as prizes. But from the
perspective of the Flying Spaghetti Monster we would know because the
omniscient Flying Spaghetti Monster does know how many lottery tickets are
marked as prices. Let’s say it is 10%. If we now pick a ticket, is it then
correct to say that this one, this particular ticket has a 10% chance to be a
price? It has already decided beforehand if it is a price or not. It either is
a price or it isn’t, we just don’t know. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">We could of course restate our
statement from saying the lottery ticket has a 10% chance of being a price to
our chance of getting a price. That being an event in the future, it might seem
less determent. But for everyone who holds a deterministic worldview, the same
problem occurs. (And for everybody else as well, if the future is indeed
determined. They just don’t have to worry about it.) It is already determined
if we get a prize or not.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">The way school book statistics
– or frequentist statistics - deals with that is that they interpret
probability as relative frequency. For example, the relative frequency of a
coin landing heads up is about ½ or the relative frequency of rolling a 6 with
a regular dice is about 1/6 in the long run.</span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">The opposing – or Bayesian -
way to look at probability would be to express your belief that a coin is landing
heads up or you are rolling a 6. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Obviously we need some prior
experience or experiments to have a belief about the probability a coin is
landing heads up. When asked to estimate how many blue balls are in a bucket of
10 balls we might not know and think that every number of balls from 0 to 10 is
equally likely.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Let’s go back to the lottery
example. When we look at it from a school book statistic viewpoint – of
frequentist viewpoint – we do not know what the probability of getting a prize
is unless we draw a lot of lottery tickets (with replacement) and calculate the
relative frequency of getting a prize. Each one of the lottery tickets itself
either wins or it doesn’t.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">This might not be feasible,
though, because our monetary means might be limited. So from the Bayesian point
of view we could include our prior knowledge about winning a lottery into the
estimate. If it says “Every ticket wins”, it should be ~100%, though we can
doubt the value of the prize. If you can win only 3 cars (nothing else) and it
is unknown how many tickets are given out, the probability is probably pretty
low. If you set up the lottery and know that 10% of the tickets are marked as
prizes you know the probability is 10%.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">The important distinction is:
From the frequentist viewpoint we can only know the relative frequency of
getting a prize. From the Bayesian viewpoint we only know our degree of belief
in getting a prize. Both probabilities are updated as more knowledge is gained
– for example by experiments – but the updating is done in different ways. But
that is beyond the scope of this post.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">The question is: What is
probability? Is the objective frequentist view the right one or the subjective
Bayesian one? Or are both correct at the same time or in different situations?</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Let’s look at another example:
A doctor tells a patient he has a 50% chance of surviving the next 12 month. But
in the end, the only thing we know for sure is that he’ll either die within one
year of not. He can’t survive 50%. Of course we can say that 50% of people with
the disease die within one year, but that is a statement about the population
of people with the disease and not the individual. The individual or does or
does not die. (Within one year.) </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Relative frequencies can only
be obtained for the population of patients and not for the individual case.
Repeated measurements are not possible unless the individual dead patient is
able to arise of the dead.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">So another possibility to say,
that the patient has a 50% chance of surviving would be to say that the degree
of belief (of the doctor) that the patient survives one year in 50%.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Only a matter of terminology
or a really fundamental difference? <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_GoBack"></a>What do you think?</span></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-67440286447578412752015-12-07T22:06:00.000+01:002015-12-24T10:43:36.713+01:00Being blind to faces?<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Well, I myself am well able to recognize faces and distingue them from other stuff, like wardrobe or household items.<br /><br />But I can’t distinguish between different faces very well.<br /><br />Yesterday I took part in a pilot experiment of a college. My task was it to do the N-back task with faces. The N-back task works the following: You are presented pictures of faces, one after each other. If you see the same face twice, with one other face in between, you should press a button. E.g. if the sequence is A, B, C, B, D, B, D, A, B, C, B a button press should follow at every “red image” A, B, C, <span style="background-color: red;">B</span>, D, <span style="background-color: red;">B</span>, D, A, <span style="background-color: red;">D</span>, C, B.<br /><br />The task itself was not supposed to be difficult. My colleague wanted to modulate the response time / accuracy by other means. For me however, the task was impossible to solve, because all faces looked the same.<br /><br />It was actually quite surprising to see that one should be able to distinguish these faces. I always knew that I was terrible at that – that I can’t watch (or understand) movies because all the actors look the same and I have no chance to distinguish them – but I did not know that other people get an impression of a face within like 2 seconds or so. <br /><br />So I thought, it might be interesting for other people if I try to explain "how" I see faces:<br /><br />The strange thing is I am able to distinguish different persons from one another – if I have had sufficient training time. People have a lot of characteristics that are not bound to their face: like their voice, their build, and their style of clothes (or the specific clothes they wear), or – quite close to the face but still good hints – their hair color and length: Once a colleague of mine, who used to have a beard, removed it. That confused me a lot. I knew it was his voice, but he didn’t look like him. It took me half a day or so – and others calling him his name – to figure out that he was still him, despite the change in appearance.<br /><br />Some might think: Well, if the removal of his beard confused you so much, than you must have remembered his face, with his beard, to be confused about that in the first place. And that is true, but I think I probably remembered just his beard and not the rest of his face and that is, why he didn’t look at all like him, once he removed his beard.<br /><br />Other people however, can change their facial hair without me even noticing. A little unfair, I know, but I just recognize them by something else than their facial hair. My father for example has an enhancement (pimple like but permanent) right at the tip of his noise. A feature I liked as a child, because it made him easier distinguishable from all the other men: I knew the man with this nose was my dad.<br /><br />For other people I don’t know how I recognize them – and if I don’t know them quite well, there is a high chance I don’t recognize them at all. Or I may think two "totally different looking" persons were one and the same (which can be quite confusing), until I notice the difference. Then the difference between the two people becomes obvious to me aswell, leaving me wonder why I didn't see the obvious before.<br /><br />However, with enough time to learn, I’m not unable to memorize faces, or the visual pattern that makes a face. It is just not easier for me to learn “a face” than to learn another pattern of similar complexity. Houses for example, seem to me a lot easier to distinguish than people, but maybe that is just because they are. What do I know? But take brains for example. Most people wouldn’t say brains, or anatomical pictures of brains are easy to distinguish from one another. I wouldn’t say that either. But contrary to the belief of some, they don’t look all the same. There are substantial differences, maybe even more than in faces, yet they can be difficult to detect – just like differences in faces.<br /><br />Now for me it would be interesting to know who other people (in their own subjective experience) distinguish different faces from one another. <br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size: 10pt;">P.S.: <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">I'm just speaking about myself, not anyone else.</span> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Unfortunat<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">ely have not yet read the boo<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">k by Oliver Sacks.</span></span></span> </span></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-65953956350868541292015-12-06T16:55:00.001+01:002015-12-24T10:44:22.903+01:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6580640896819888115.post-12727816734462430692015-11-30T20:39:00.000+01:002017-03-09T09:52:54.949+01:00Are the beliefs of Mormons less likely than those of Christians? - On the debate between Sam Harris and Cenk Uygur<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The debate between Cenk Uygur
and Sam Harris about differences between different religions has been highlighted
again.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In short, Sam Harris’ point
is that Mormonism is based on less likely beliefs than Christianity, because
Mormons believe that Jesus will come back to Missouri where as Christians
believe that he will come back somewhere, without specifying the exact place
for that event to happen.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Cenk Uygurs point is, that
both religous beliefs are false (like 2+2=5) and therefore adding the
specificity of believing Jesus will return in Jackson County Missouri does not <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">decrea<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">se the </span></span>likelihood.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">You can watch the exchange
<a href="https://youtu.be/WVl3BJoEoAU?t=17m54s" target="_blank">here at 17:54 min<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> <span style="font-size: xx-small;">(external link)</span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></span><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">So, who is right? <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Let’s look at another example
that is similar to this debate, studied by <a href="http://ling.umd.edu/~idsardi/728/Tversky-Kahneman.pdf" target="_blank">Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky</a>:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Linda is 31 years old,
single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she
was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also
participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.*</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Linda is a bank teller. (T)</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Linda is a bank teller and
is active in the feminist movement. (T&F)</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;">
</span></blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Although the first statement
(T) is more likely, 85% of the participants in their study believed the second
statement (T&F) was more likely, probably because (T&F) is more
representative of a person like Linda.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">However, (T) Linda is a bank
teller, includes (T&F) because the later statement includes all possible
extracurricular activities; also that of her being a feminist. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">If (T&F) is true, (T)
also has to be true</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">, therefore P(T&F) ≤ P(T). The conjunction of (T) and (F) (T&F)
can’t be more likely than each part, (T) and (F) on its own. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Not recognizing
that P(T&F) can’t be greater than P(T) is called conjunction fallacy.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Does this mean, Sam Harris
is right and Christianity is a little less absurd than Mormonism?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">If we look at the
Linda-Example, not if for some reason bank tellers would not exist anymore. Maybe
the financial world finally crashed and all former bank tellers are now
tale-tellers. In this case, the probability of Linda being a feminist would not
change the probability of her being a bank teller, because we know that bank
tellers don’t exist, P(T&F) = P(T) = 0.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">This is the argument made by
Cenk Uygur. He says, Jesus doesn’t exist, therefore it does not matter where he
is expected to return to earth to free us all from our sins, it’s not going to
happen, the probability is 0 point nothing. Therefore
P(Jesus)=P(Jesus&Missouri)=0. That would be true for any other location as
well, whether it is Jerusalem, Missouri or the White House.**<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">So is Cenk Uygur right?
If the probability of Jesus existing/returning is 0, yes. If it is anything greater than
0, then no, the probability of Jesus existing P(Jesus) would be greater than
the probability of Jesus existing and coming <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">back</span> in Missouri
P(Jesus&Missouri). Unless of course Jesuses always <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">return</span> <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">to</span> Missouri,
or the probability of Jesus coming down in Missouri would be 100%.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In the Linda example, that
means, if we would know Linda is a feminist for sure (100%), her being a
feminist would not decrease the probability of the second statement over the
first (they had the same likelihood in this case, P(T&F)=P(T)). Likewise,
if we would know that all bank tellers are always feminists the probability of
the second statement over the first would not be decreased P(T&F)=P(T).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">For a more realistic
example: P(being dead)=P(being dead & no neuronal activity) because the
lack of neuronal activity is included in being dead***. Unless one is Jesus
himself, I believe Jesuses have not been studied extensively.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">But since Sam Harris and
Cenk Uygur agree that Jesuses don’t always return in Missouri nor Missouri is
in any way the certain location, the question boils down to the question if the
probability of Jesus returning (existing) is greater than 0.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">If it is 0, the probability
for him returning in Missouri is as high as anywhere else, namely 0.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">But Christians and Mormons both
don’t believe that the probability of Jesus existing and returning is 0. So
maybe which religion is more absurd should be judged on their own (shared) premise
(that Jesus existed and will return)? If this premise is accepted, the more
(independent, uncertain) details are added, the lower the probability of the
story happening exactly as outlined is. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">On the other hand it might
be that it is just these details that make the story believable for some –
however absurd they are for other people: Good stories require details and
lively characters.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Therefore I don’t think that
the real oversight of a lot of believers is the commitment of the conjunction
fallacy, but rather the unquestioned acceptance of religious stories as
historical fact from which directions, predictions and values can be derived,
despite counter evidence – a point <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">they also <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">briefly discuss</span></span> <a href="https://youtu.be/WVl3BJoEoAU?t=19m43s" target="_blank">here</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Or in other words: Religions
are not absurd because their believers may commit the conjunction fallacy, but
because they uncritically accept the absurd underlying story which leads many
of them to commit logical fallacies.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>English is not my native
language. I’m sorry for the not very straight forward expression of my thoughts and
will of course correct my text if mistakes are pointed out to me. Thank you!</b><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">* Please consider that
Kahneman & Tversky used this example in the 70th and early 80th.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">** After writing this, I saw
<a href="https://youtu.be/mwci5-vfGmU?t=9m16s" target="_blank">a video</a> in which Cenk Uygur portrays Sam Harris as if he had
said Jesus were more likely to return to Jersualem than to Missouri. This is, however, not the case, as you can see in the first
video clip (or hear on <a href="https://soundcloud.com/samharrisorg/on-the-maintenance-of-civilization" target="_blank">Sam Harris' podcast at minute 53:20</a>). Therefore I concentrate on the question whether one specific
location is inevitable less likely than any location, as I believe this was the
real point of discussion.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">*** If measurement errors <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">would not exist</span>.
Both, being dead and neuronal activity are of course measured one way or the
other, which means, that both probabilities are prone to errors. </span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028213879398225895noreply@blogger.com0